bitcoin (BTC) could already initiate its new macro uptrend if historic “hodl” patterns repeat.
This was the conclusion of the research on the latest data covering the amount of BTC supply that has been dormant for a year or more as of July 2022.
Hodled BTC hints that the bear market is over
According to independent analyst Miles Johal, who posted the results to social media on July 29, a “round-top” formation in “hodled” BTC is coming to an end.
Once this is the case, price should react – as many times before.
The clue lies in Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric, which breaks down supply based on each bitcoin’s last move. A year or more ago – the year-long HODL wave – currently reflects the majority of the supply.
The attached chart from Johal shows that the higher the proportion of global supply that is stationary for at least one year, the closer BTC/USD is to a macro low.
More importantly, however, a slowdown in the year-over-year HODL wave – indicating that the accumulation is calming down – followed by the start of a reversal has always occurred at the start of a new long-term BTC price uptrend. .
This “rounded top” chart phenomenon is therefore keenly observed as a potential source of hope, with Bitcoin already making up for lost ground.
In the comments, Johal argued that few paid attention to HODL Waves.
Foreign exchange balances at their lowest since 2018
Separate on-chain analytics company data glass knot meanwhile, highlighted the current trend of bitcoins exiting exchanges.
BTC in exchange wallets now represents just 12.6% of overall supply, down from 4.6% of overall supply since the March 2020 crash, staff noted.
FX balances have now seen a macro outflow of over 4.6% of circulating supply since the March 2020 ATH.
— glass node (@glassnode) July 29, 2022
In terms of BTC, the figure is 2.4 million BTC now compared to 3.15 million BTC in March 2020. The number is the lowest since July 2018.
Earlier this month, Cointelegraph reported on the trend of accelerating withdrawal of coins from exchanges.
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