bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins see profits on July 25 as bulls trim positions ahead of the July 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. This indicates that sentiment remains fragile and bulls are not confident to carry long positions into the event.
Several analysts maintained their bearish view after Bitcoin failed to hold above the 200-week moving average at $22,780. CryptoQuant contributor Venturefounder expects selling will resume and Bitcoin will fall as low as $14,000 before a macro bottom was confirmed.
Institutional investors seem absent from the markets and the recovery is driven by retail investors. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed that investors holding one bitcoin or less accumulated aggressively “more now than ever.”
Could retail investors continue their frantic pace of buying and put a floor under Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin bounced off the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($21,857) on July 23, but the bulls were unable to clear the hurdle at $23,363 on July 24. This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending overhead resistance.
The price has returned to the 20-day EMA, which is an important level to watch. If this level cracks, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $20,750. Such a move will invalidate the breakout from the symmetrical triangle.
The 20-day EMA is flattening and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
This advantage could tip in favor of the buyers if the price rises above $23,363. If that happens, the pair could climb to $28,171 and then to $30,000. The bears will need to drive the price below the support line to gain the upper hand.
The bears have successfully defended overhead resistance at $1,700 over the past few days. However, a small positive is that the bulls did not allow Ether (ETH) to drop below $1,464, indicating buying at lower levels.
If the price bounces off $1,464 again, the ETH/USDT pair could continue its action in a narrow range for a few more days. The rising 20-day EMA ($1,397) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
A breakout and close above $1,700 could signal the resumption of the upside. The pair could then rally back to $2,000.
This positive view could be invalidated if the price slips below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may drop to $1,280. A strong rebound from this level could keep the pair between $1,280 and $1,700 for a few days.
BNB fell from the downtrend line on July 23, indicating that the bears continue to defend the level with vigor. The bears will now attempt to push the price below the moving averages.
If successful, the BNB/USDT pair could test the ascending channel support line. If the price bounces off this level, the bulls will again try to push the pair above the downtrend line and challenge the channel resistance line.
Another possibility is that the bears will cause the price to drop below the channel support line. If that happens, the advantage will tip in favor of the bears and the pair could drop to the strong support at $211.
Ripple (XRP) has been consolidating between $0.30 and $0.39 for the past few days. Although the price bounced off the moving averages on July 23, the rally failed to reach the broad resistance at $0.39. This suggests that demand is drying up at higher levels.
The bears attempt to push the price below the moving averages. If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair could gradually decline towards $0.30. Buyers are likely to defend this level with all their might because if the support cracks, the pair could resume the downtrend.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds from the current level, the bulls will again try to clear the overhead hurdle at $0.39 and start a new upside move. The pair could then rally to $0.50.
Cardoon (ADA) attempted to break above the overhead resistance at $0.55 on July 24, but the bears managed to defend the level. This may have attracted profit bookings from short-term traders.
The bears attempt to push the price below the moving averages. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.44. If the price bounces off this level, the pair may swing between $0.44 and $0.55 for a few days.
Another possibility is that the price is bouncing off the moving averages. If this happens, the bulls will again try to push the pair above overhead resistance. If they succeed, the pair could gain momentum and rally to $0.63 and then to $0.70.
from Solana (FLOOR) failure to bounce off the 20-day EMA ($39) indicates that the bullish momentum may be weakening. The bears will attempt to drive the price down to the support line, which is an important level to watch.
If the price bounces off the support line, the buyers will make another attempt to push the SOL/USDT pair towards the overhead resistance at $48. The bulls will need to break through this hurdle to signal the completion of the ascending triangle pattern. This bullish setup has a target objective of $71.
Conversely, if the bears cause the price to fall below the support line, the uptrend will be reversed. The pair could then drop to $30. A break below this level will indicate that the bears have regained control.
Bears Pulled Dogecoin (DOGE) below the moving averages on July 25, which opens the doors for a decline in the trendline. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.
If the price bounces off the trendline, the bulls will attempt to push the DOGE/USDT pair above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could hit the overhead resistance at $0.08. A breakout and close above this level will complete an ascending triangle pattern which has a target objective of $0.11.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the trendline, the bullish setup will be undone. This could drop the pair to $0.06 and later to the crucial support at $0.05.
The bulls repeatedly failed to push Polkadot (POINT) above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($7.47) over the past few days, indicating that the bears are aggressively defending the level.
The DOT/USDT pair slipped below the 20-day EMA ($7.23) on July 25. If the bears keep the price below this level, the pair could slide towards the strong support at $6. This is an important level to watch as a breakout and close below could signal a resumption of the downtrend.
Another possibility is that the price rises from the current level and breaks above the 50-day SMA. If this happens, it will suggest demand at lower levels. The pair could then rise to $8.79 and later to the psychological level of $10.
Polygon (MATIC) declined from the resistance line on July 25, indicating that the bears are selling on minor rallies. The bears will attempt to drive the price down to the next support at $0.75.
The rising 20-day EMA ($0.75) and the RSI in positive territory indicate that the buyers have a slight advantage. If the price rebounds from $0.75, the bulls will again attempt to push the MATIC/USDT pair above the resistance line.
If successful, the pair could rally to the psychological level of $1. The bulls will need to clear this hurdle to initiate a move higher to $1.26.
On the contrary, if the price breaks below $0.75, it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. The pair could then slide to $0.63.
Avalanche (AVAX) formed a Doji candlestick pattern on July 23 and an inside-day candlestick pattern on July 24, indicating indecision among bulls and bears.
This uncertainty resolved to the downside on July 25 and the AVAX/USDT pair fell to the breakout level at $21.35. If the price bounces off this level with strength, it will suggest that the bulls are buying lower.
This could raise the possibility of a retest to $26.50. A break above this resistance could pave the way for a rally to $29 and then to $33.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below $21.35, the pair could drop to the support line. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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